Fernand Braudel described a hierarchy of three levels of civilization, especially in the West. There is the local level of subsistence production and barter, the regional level of markets and artisan workshops, and the global level of flexible capitalism that attempts to subsume all other economic forms. The history of Western civilization is the interaction of these three levels and the increasing control of the global level that creates new goals beyond subsistence and direct trade.

 
Here are my predictions for the winners of this year's Academy Awards. Unlike past predictions there is the highest chance that my choices will actually win Oscars this year.

Best Picture: BABEL

Best Director: MARTIN SCORSESE (THE DEPARTED)

Best Actor: FOREST WHITAKER (THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND)

Best Actress: HELEN MIRREN (THE QUEEN)

Best Supporting Actor: EDDIE MURPHY (DREAMGIRLS)

Best Supporting Actress: CATE BLANCHETT (NOTES ON A SCANDAL)

Best Foreign Language Film: THE LIVES OF OTHERS (GERMANY)

Best Original Screenplay: GUILLERMO DEL TORO (PAN’S LABYRINTH)

Best Adapted Screenplay: ALFONSO CUARÓN & TIMOTHY J. SEXTON & DAVID ARATA &
MARK FERGUS & HAWK OSTBY (CHILDREN OF MEN)

Best Original Song: LISTEN

Best Original Score: THE GOOD GERMAN

Best Cinematography: THE BLACK DAHLIA

Best Documentary Feature: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

Best Animated Feature: HAPPY FEET

Best Visual Effects: SUPERMAN RETURNS

Best Costume Design: CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER

Best Sound: APOCALYPTO

Best Sound Editing: APOCALYPTO

Best Film Editing: THE DEPARTED

Best Art/Set Direction: PAN’S LABYRINTH

Best Make-up: APOCALYPTO

Best Documentary Short: RECYCLED LIFE

Best Live Action Short Film: WEST BANK STORY

Best Animated Short Film: THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL